The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (2024)

Matthew Fox

·3 min read

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (1)

  • Investors are always on the hunt for secular growth stocks that could become the next mega-cap giant like Apple or Microsoft.

  • Goldman Sachs identified financial characteristics that could help investors in their search.

  • This is the "Rule of 10" screening tactic used by Goldman to identify secular growth stocks.

After the stunning ascent of mega-cap tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet over the past decade, more and more investors are on the hunt to find tomorrow's big stock market winners.

In an effort to identify the future mega-cap giants, Goldman Sachs analyzed the financial similarities behind today's winners and used that information to develop a screen that can help investors scout out the future growth engines of the stock market.

In a recent note, Goldman highlighted its "Rule of 10" in a bid to screen for secular growth stocks in the S&P 500 that can grow in all stages of an economic cycle. The screen focuses on revenue growth above 10%.

"We screen for S&P 500 stocks that grew sales by at least 10% during each of the previous two years and are expected to grow sales by at least 10% in the current year and each of the next two years," Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said.

There are currently 20 S&P 500 stocks that meet this criteria, and they're in good company.

"The seven mega-cap tech stocks grew sales at a 15% CAGR from 2013 to 2019, compared with 4% growth for the S&P 500. Excepting 2022, these stocks grew sales at a faster rate than the broader index in each year since 2019," Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said.

And the mega-cap tech stocks are still in great shape, according to Kostin, with Wall Street estimating that they will grow revenues at an annual rate of 11% through 2025, compared to just 4% growth for the S&P 500.

While stocks that met this criteria have outperformed the S&P 500 considerably over the past decade, so to have stocks that experienced consistent profit growth of at least 10%. This screen is especially poignant after 2022, as investors shifted their focus from "growth at all costs" to sustainable growth in profits.

Goldman identified 18 S&P 500 companies that meet this criteria, and only eight stocks that meet the criteria of both 10% revenue growth and 10% income growth.

These are the eight S&P 500 companies that meet Goldman Sachs' "Rule of 10" screening criteria for both revenue and profits.

8. ServiceNow

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (2)

Ticker: NOW
Market Capitalization: $114.8 billion

7. Paycom Software

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (3)

Ticker: PAYC
Market Capitalization: $18.4 billion

6. Insulet

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (4)

Ticker: PODD
Market Capitalization: $20.0 billion

5. Fortinet

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (5)

Ticker: FTNT
Market Capitalization: $58.0 billion

4. Chipotle Mexican Grill

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (6)

Ticker: CMG
Market Capitalization: $58.3 billion

3. Intuit

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (7)

Ticker: INTU
Market Capitalization: $127.5 billion

2. Cadence Design Systems

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (8)

Ticker: CDNS
Market Capitalization: $64.4 billion

1. Aptiv

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (9)

Ticker: APTV
Market Capitalization: $29.2 billion

Read the original article on Business Insider

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs (2024)

FAQs

The 'Rule of 10' can help investors identify the next big stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs? ›

"We screen for S&P 500 stocks that grew sales by at least 10% during each of the previous two years and are expected to grow sales by at least 10% in the current year and each of the next two years," Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said.

What is the 10 rule in the stock market? ›

A: If you're buying individual stocks — and don't know about the 10% rule — you're asking for trouble. It's the one rough adage investors who survive bear markets know about. The rule is very simple. If you own an individual stock that falls 10% or more from what you paid, you sell.

What is the rule of 20 in stock market? ›

In other words, the Rule of 20 suggests that markets may be fairly valued when the sum of the P/E ratio and the inflation rate equals 20. The stock market is deemed to be undervalued when the sum is below 20 and overvalued when the sum is above 20.

What is the rule of 21 in the stock market? ›

The relationship can be referred to as the “Rule of 21,” which says that the sum of the P/E ratio and CPI inflation should equal 21. It's not a perfect relationship, but holds true generally. What can we infer from this information for today's market?

What is the 7% loss rule? ›

The 7% stop loss rule is a rule of thumb to place a stop loss order at about 7% or 8% below the buy order for any new position. If the asset price falls by more than 7%, the stop-loss order automatically executes and liquidates the traders' position.

What is the 10 rule of investment? ›

Investing 10% of your pre-tax income should be considered the bare minimum, Nott says—20% is his general rule of thumb. If you're looking to be more aggressive in your investment strategy, that figure can be as high as 30% to 40%.

What does the 10 rule mean? ›

What is the 10 rule? The ten percent rule of energy transfer states that each level in an ecosystem only gives 10% of its energy to the levels above it. This law explains much of the structural dynamics of ecosystems including why there are more organisms at the bottom of the ecosystem pyramid compared to the top.

What are the golden rules of stock market? ›

Take informed decision

Whether you decide to invest, sell or hold - always make sure that you know why you are taking the decision. Conduct proper research to ensure that your decisions are reasonable. Your investment decisions must be data-driven and not sentiment- or reputation-driven.

What is No 1 rule of trading? ›

Rule 1: Always Use a Trading Plan

You need a trading plan because it can assist you with making coherent trading decisions and define the boundaries of your optimal trade.

What is the 80-20 rule in the stock market? ›

In investing, the 80-20 rule generally holds that 20% of the holdings in a portfolio are responsible for 80% of the portfolio's growth. On the flip side, 20% of a portfolio's holdings could be responsible for 80% of its losses.

What is Warren Buffett's golden rule? ›

1 – Never lose money. Let's kick it off with some timeless advice from legendary investor Warren Buffett, who said “Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No.

Should I sell my stocks now in a recession? ›

While selling stocks during a market downturn might make you feel better temporarily, doing so reactively because stocks are tumbling isn't a good long-term investment strategy.

What is the best day to sell stocks? ›

Many traders and investors believe Friday is the best day to sell stocks. This belief comes from observations of the aforementioned Friday Effect, where stocks often enjoy a slight bump in prices as the trading week comes to a close.

What is the 70 20 10 rule in stocks? ›

Part one of the rule said that in the next 12 months, the return you got on a stock was 70% determined by what the U.S. stock market did, 20% was determined by how the industry group did and 10% was based on how undervalued and successful the individual company was.

What is the 15 15 15 rule in stock market? ›

Meaning of the 15-15-15 rule in Mutual Funds

The Investment: You should invest Rs 15,000 per month. The Tenure: The total of your investment should be 15 years. It means that you will invest Rs 15,000 every month for the next 15 years. The Return: Your expected returns on your investment should be 15%

What is the 10 day rule in the stock market? ›

The New York Stock Exchange rule permitting member firms (brokers) to vote in favor of management ten days or less before the meeting, provided that the member firm mailed proxy material to beneficial owners at least 15 business days before the meeting.

What is the 11am rule in trading? ›

The logic behind this rule is that if the market has not reversed by 11 am EST, it is less likely to experience a significant trend reversal during the remainder of the trading day. This is particularly relevant for day traders who typically close out their positions before the market closes at 4 pm EST.

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