25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (2024)

But a careful analysis of the record shows that the picture is more complex and, ultimately, far less daunting: An investor who invested a lump sum in the average stock at the market’s 1929 high would have been back to a break-even by late 1936—less than four-and-a-half years after the mid-1932 market low.

25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (1)

Correct picture? A file photo of the New York Stock Exchange. Determining the length of a recovery is tough, given the many definitions of a bear market. But whatever the definition, typical recovery time is quite quick. Gino Domenico / Bloomberg

The numbers show that from a peak, on a closing basis, of 381.17 on 3 September 1929, the Dow needed until 23 November 1954, to return to its old high. But that’s in “nominal" terms, without adjusting for the effects of inflation or its opposite, deflation.

The Great Depression was a deflationary period. And because the Consumer Price Index in late 1936 was more than 18% lower than it was in the fall of 1929, stating market returns without accounting for deflation exaggerates the decline.

These payouts played a big role in the 1930s. When the Dow hit a low of 41.22 on 8 July 1932, for example, the dividend yield of the overall stock market was close to 14%, according to data compiled by Robert J. Shiller, the Yale economics professor.

So ignoring dividends, especially when yields were so rich, also exaggerates the losses of a typical equity investor.

Many researchers consider the overall market—defined as the combined value of all publicly traded stocks—as the best gauge of a typical investor’s experience.

The Dow is made up of just 30 stocks, which are weighted in the index according to their price rather than their relative market capitalization.

Perhaps the most celebrated illustration of the Dow’s failure to represent the overall market traces back to a 1939 decision to delete International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) from the Dow 30 list. IBM wasn’t restored to the index until 1979.

Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster newsletter, has estimated that the Dow would have been more than twice as high in 1979 had IBM stayed in the index continuously.

It’s unclear when the Dow would have returned to its 1929 pre-crash high had IBM not been deleted in 1939.

In response to a request, an analyst at the indexes division of Dow Jones said that it was unable to determine the answer.

But because IBM’s stock was one of the best performers during the 1940s, greatly outpacing the Dow itself, it’s certain that its inclusion would have markedly accelerated the index’s recovery.

So when did the overall stock market really make it back to its pre-crash peak? Just four years and five months after its mid-1932 low, according to data provided to Sunday Business by Ibbotson Associates Inc., a division of Morningstar Inc.

That seems remarkably fast, given that the stock market lost more than 80% of its value from its 1929 high to its mid-1932 low.

But the quick recovery of the 1930s is consistent with the typical experience after other bear markets in the US.

Determining the precise length of such recoveries is a problem, given the many definitions of a bear market. Whatever definition is used, however, the typical recovery time is quite quick.

In fact, according to a Hulbert Financial Digest study of down markets since 1900, the average recovery time is just over two years, when factors like inflation and dividends are taken into account.

The longest was the recovery from the December 1974 low; it took more than eight years for the market to return to its previous peak, which was reached in late 1972.

None of this, of course, guarantees that stocks will have a quick recovery from the market decline that began in October 2007. But it suggests that the historical record isn’t as bleak as it looks.

©2009/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Mark Hulbert is editor ofThe Hulbert Financial Digest, a service of MarketWatch.

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Published: 26 Apr 2009, 09:43 PM IST

25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (2024)

FAQs

How many years did it take to recover from the Stock Market Crash of 1929? ›

The Dow Jones did not return to its peak close of September 3, 1929, for 25 years, until November 23, 1954.

What caused the Stock Market Crash of 1929 answers? ›

There were many causes of the 1929 stock market crash, some of which included overinflated shares, growing bank loans, agricultural overproduction, panic selling, stocks purchased on margin, higher interest rates, and a negative media industry.

Who is most to blame for the crash of 1929? ›

Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount ...

What were 2 results of the 1929 stock market crash? ›

The crash frightened investors and consumers. Men and women lost their life savings, feared for their jobs, and worried whether they could pay their bills. Fear and uncertainty reduced purchases of big ticket items, like automobiles, that people bought with credit.

What were the long term effects of the stock market crash of 1929? ›

By 1933, nearly half of America's banks had failed, and unemployment was approaching 15 million people or 30 percent of the U.S. workforce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would not return to its pre-1929 heights until November of 1954, about 25 years later.

What outcome of the great crash in 1929 lasted for over 50 years? ›

What was one outcome of the stock market's Great Crash in 1929 that lasted for more than 50 years? Ordinary people were afraid to invest in the stock market.

Who profited from the stock market crash of 1929? ›

Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.

What were the results of the 1929 stock market crash Quizlet? ›

(1929)The steep fall in the prices of stocks due to widespread financial panic. It was caused by stock brokers who called in the loans they had made to stock investors. This caused stock prices to fall, and many people lost their entire life savings as many financial institutions went bankrupt.

What was the impact of the 1929 stock market crash on Quizlet? ›

The stock market crash crippled the American economy because not only had individual investors put their money into stocks, so did businesses. When the stock market crashed, businesses lost their money. ... Business houses closed their doors, factories shut down and banks failed.

Do you lose all your money if the stock market crashes? ›

Even if your brokerage account suffers a loss of value, you have a chance to regain and even exceed the loss as the stock price recovers—as long as you don't sell your shares.

What assets performed well during the Great Depression? ›

The best performing investments during the Depression were government bonds (many corporations stopped paying interest on their bonds) and annuities.

Did anyone predict the 1929 crash? ›

Newswise — Seventy-five years ago, Babson College founder Roger Babson predicted the Crash of '29 and the Great Depression. Wall Street ridiculed his warnings but on September 29, 1929, they sadly came true.

Could the stock market crash of 1929 happen again? ›

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation also oversees bank operations and insures depositor's' money to prevent bank runs that became an iconic image in the 1930s. While a drop like 1929 could potentially happen again, it wouldn't have the same the consequences today as it did 90 years ago.

What ended the Great Depression? ›

Despite all the President's efforts and the courage of the American people, the Depression hung on until 1941, when America's involvement in the Second World War resulted in the drafting of young men into military service, and the creation of millions of jobs in defense and war industries.

Why did banks fail during the Great Depression? ›

Many smaller banks, such as this one in Haverhill, Iowa, lacked sufficient reserves to stay in business and became no more than convenient billboards. Many of the small banks had lent large portions of their assets for stock market speculation and were virtually put out of business overnight when the market crashed.

How long did it take to fully recover from the Great Depression? ›

While conditions began to improve by the mid-1930s, total recovery was not accomplished until the end of the decade.

How long did it take for us to recover from the Great Depression? ›

Although the U.S. economy began to recover in the second quarter of 1933, the recovery largely stalled for most of 1934 and 1935. A more vigorous recovery commenced in late 1935 and continued into 1937, when a new depression occurred.

How long was the longest stock market recovery? ›

As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).

How long did it take to recover from the Great Recession? ›

For workers and households, the picture was less rosy. Unemployment was at 5% at the end of 2007, reached a high of 10% in October 2009, and did not recover to 5% until 2015, nearly eight years after the beginning of the recession. Real median household income did not recover to pre-recession levels until 2016.

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